The FMCG industry hopes for a revival in consumption growth in 2025 with some 'green shoots' already visible, after having a challenging year amid escalating input costs and a double-digit rise in food inflation, which ultimately slowed down the pace of the urban market growth in the second half of 2024. Soaring prices of commodities such as palm oil, coffee, cocoa and wheat forced FMCG players to go for a hike of 3 to 5 per cent or resort to shrinkflation by reducing pack sizes and grammage to retain attractive price points, fearing a volume loss.
'Could the impending new crisis, vibe coding, similarly create not a disaster like what befell Indian handlooms during the Industrial Revolution but another opportunity like what the Y2K crisis created?' asks Ajit Balakrishnan.
'For 40 years, India valued only technical skills. IITs, coding -- that became everything.' 'Soft skills were sidelined. But those are the skills that will keep you employable now, not technical skills.'
Brokerages expect a further slowdown in Indian firms' revenue and earnings growth in Q4FY25, following low single-digit growth in the preceding three quarters, as factors like weak consumer demand and credit growth linger on.
Growing protectionism in their main markets - the US and the UK - has forced them to hire local workers, upending the cost arbitrage model they had built their business on.
Cement production contracted by 2.7 per cent as against an expansion of 6.2 per cent in October 2016.
The growth in key sectors will have implications for the Index of Industrial Production as these eight segments account for about 41 per cent of the total factory output.
'In the past six months, capital markets have seen a dip, and realty is struggling. The stock-market investor will be cautious of putting that investment in real estate when there may be a slowdown coming.'
The growth in eight infrastructure industries slowed to 2.3 per cent in May mainly due to contraction in crude oil, natural gas, coal and fertilizer output.
"These latest so-called 'Liberation Day' tariffs are reckless and self-destructive, inflicting financial pain on Illinois at a time when people are already struggling to keep their small businesses afloat and put food on the table."
Growth in corporate profits needs to be commensurate with wages to boost the economy, Economic Survey 2024-25 said, noting that sharp disparities between the two pose risk to the economy by curbing demand. The document tabled in Parliament on Friday noted that while the labour share of GVA (gross value added) shows a slight uptick, the disproportionate rise in corporate profitsredominantly among large firmsaises concerns about income inequality.
The pharmaceuticals sector is expected to post a revenue growth of around 13.5 per cent and a net profit growth of 30.3 per cent for the third quarter of 2023-24 (FY24), riding on the approval for niche drugs in the US market, fall in raw material prices and correction in shipping rates. In the healthcare segment, hospitals are expected to post revenue growth of 13 per cent during the coverage, while net profit growth would be around 37 per cent, ICICI Securities said in a note. However, the performance may not be comparable on a sequential basis due to the offset of the festive season in Q3FY24, the analysts noted.
India has managed to move a smaller share of its working-age population away from farm-related work than many of its neighbours. Bangladesh, Bhutan, Sri Lanka and Nepal managed to shift a bigger share of jobs to non-agricultural work than India, shows data from the year 2000 to 2023 the compiled from the World Bank's April South Asia Development Update report. Only Pakistan and the Maldives show a lower shift among South Asian peers.
The output had expanded 1.8 per cent year-on-year in January.
After falling 17 per cent since the start of the year to its March lows, the stock of the country's largest pharmaceutical (pharma) company, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, has clawed back nearly half of those losses. Recent acquisitions, a favourable court ruling in the case of the hair loss drug Leqselvi, an edge over peers owing to its specialty portfolio, and a diversified global presence have supported the recovery.
Expressing disappointment over dismal 0.1 per cent industrial growth rate in April, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee said the government would take steps to give positive signals to the industry.
Audi plans to focus the Indian market, including deepening market penetration and increasing sales volume.
I'...additional concessions, such as opening government procurement, reducing agricultural subsidies, weakening patent protections, and allowing unrestricted data flows -- demands India has resisted for decades.'
'Entering India is exciting, but it's also challenging. You have to be prepared for long-term investment.'
To enable Indian banks and financial institutions to develop an aircraft-leasing ecosystem at GIFT City, the Ministry of Civil Aviation has sought support from the Ministry of Finance. It has also raised concern over slow progress in developing aircraft leasing in India.
Why has the shift from ICE to electric slowed down despite initial enthusiasm?
Ban on high-value currency sends advertising industry into a tailspin.
High-value insurance policies experienced muted growth in the first six months of the current financial year after the Centre decided to tax such products in this year's Budget. Simultaneously, there has been a marked improvement in the growth of policies with premiums of 'less than Rs 5 lakh', mainly originating from smaller cities. During this year's Budget, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman proposed that insurance policies (excluding unit linked insurance plans or ULIPs) with an aggregate premium exceeding Rs 5 lakh, and the maturity amount, would not be exempt from tax.
Sluggish infrastructure sector growth would also have impact on IIP as these segments account for about 41 per cent of the total factory output.
Top gainers in the Sensex pack included Vedanta, ICICI Bank, ONGC, Kotak Bank, Axis Bank, SBI, M&M, Infosys, PowerGrid, HCL Tech, NTPC, Bajaj Finance and Reliance Industries, rising up to 2.72 per cent.
New regulatory rules, softer freight rates and a liquidity crunch at non-bank lenders are among the reasons.
Following the lacklustre growth numbers in the second quarter (Q2FY25), economists believe the upcoming Union Budget for 2025-26 should focus on reforms that will stimulate consumption, manufacturing and spur employment. India's growth unexpectedly slowed to 5.4 per cent in the second quarter, due to low capital formation, weak consumption, besides adverse weather impact.
The dip in industrial production has been described as not a cause for worry as this figure is based against the high growth of 14.8 per cent in March last year.
Private life insurers experienced reasonable growth in the July-September quarter (second quarter, or Q2) of 2023-24 (FY24), and the October data is also encouraging. The individual weighted received premium (WRP) for private players grew by 19.8 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) in October. However, Life Insurance Corporation (LIC) of India had slower growth, pulling the industry growth rate down to 13 per cent Y-o-Y.
Largecap companies are generally less vulnerable to economic slowdowns than their mid- and smallcap counterparts.
'Growth would have to be 7% in the October-March period, if the year as a whole is to clock 6%.' 'Who would bet on that when, in the world of real numbers, both exports and imports have continued to fall, car sales have continued to slump, and the industrial production index shows yet again a drop in output?', asks T N Ninan.
'Invest only in stocks of those companies that deliver on earnings and there is earnings visibility too for the next few quarters.'
Wouldn't it be better to reach 45 with a backup engine of passive income that helps you glide through these years instead of grinding, asks Ramalingam Kalirajan
Indian growth in the rest of this fiscal year and next will be propelled by robust domestic consumption as consumer confidence improves, and by investment, including large increases in government capital expenditure, according to the Asian Development Outlook September 2023. "As slowing exports could foment headwinds for the economy, and erratic rainfall patterns are likely to undermine agricultural output, the growth forecast for FY2023 is revised down marginally to 6.3 per cent," ADB said.
Leading FMCG companies reported a decline in margins in the September quarter on account of higher input costs and food inflation, which ultimately slowed down the pace of urban consumption. Rising prices of commodity inputs such as palm oil, coffee and cocoa were also accentuated and some FMCG firms have hinted at a price hike. HUL, Godrej Consumer Products Ltd (GCPL), Marico, ITC, and Tata Consumer Products Ltd (TCPL) have expressed concerns over squeezing urban consumption, which according to industry experts forms 65-68 per cent of FMCG total sales.
India will drive growth in the Asia-Pacific (Apac) region as the growth engine is likely to shift from China to South and Southeast Asia in the coming years, S&P Global Ratings said in a report on Tuesday. The rating agency's report projected China's growth to slow down to 4.6 per cent by 2026 from an estimated 5.4 per cent in 2023. India is likely to clock 7 per cent economic growth from 6.4 per cent estimated for 2023.
'Inflation is not good for industry. Nor for the economy as a whole.'
The expansion in September is highest since April, when the core sectors' growth stood at 2.6 per cent.
With another quarter of steady growth in demand, cement companies are expected to report strong year-on-year (Y-o-Y) growth in earnings, according to analysts. The September quarter (Q2FY24) also witnessed a resumption of price hikes in certain markets. UltraTech Cement, India's largest cement producer, reported a 15 per cent Y-o-Y increase in cement sales in the country for the quarter under review.
